Updated Feb. 17, 2026, 9:51 a.m. ETIn April 2025, as U.S. stock markets were melting down in reaction to Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day edicts, the president’s top adviser on tariffs, Peter Navarro, proclaimed that not only would markets rebound but that the Dow Jones Industrial Average also would soar past 50,000 points.Listening to Navarro at the time, I resisted the urge to roll my eyes like a 12-year-old. Since I’m a semi-functional adult, I instead muttered: “Yeah, right.”It turns out I was (happily) wrong and Navarro was right, much to the relief of the 62% of American adults who own stocks.The Dow not only closed past the 50,000-point milestone for the first time in history on Feb. 6, but the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes have each gained more than 10% in the past year.I hear what you’re thinking: The stock market isn’t the economy. That cliché is both true and false. True in that not all dinghies rise when the markets swell. But false because of what the markets do measure – the financial health of companies that cut paychecks for the vast majority of Americans.The data is clear: Trump’s economy is strongConsider this: More than 75% of S&P 500 companies recorded year-over-year earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 – the highest percentage in over four years. That’s a reflection of strength and resiliency not only in those companies but also in the broader economy. Recession fears, be damned.Other data released in recent days also reflect the overall strength of the U.S. economy. Analysts painted the job market as stable after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Feb. 11 that employers added 130,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%.The most recent inflation figure is also encouraging, clocking in at the lowest rate since 2021.Real incomes – pay increases minus the rate of inflation – are also rising. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Feb. 13 that real average weekly earnings increased 1.9% from January 2025 to January 2026.Despite what you hear incessantly from Democrats and in the media, life is more affordable on average for Americans now than a year ago.Another common knock on the Trump economy is that wealthy Americans are prospering while ordinary folk are hurting. But Barclays’ chief U.S. economist says that narrative is overblown.“Wealth has gone up pretty much across the board,” Marc Giannoni told The Wall Street Journal.Real incomes are growing. Americans are adding wealth. Inflation continues to moderate. Unemployment remains relatively low.Why doesn’t Trump get more credit? Well, Trump.So, why don’t more Americans feel bullish about the economy? And why doesn’t Trump get more credit for the almost-impossible-to-stick soft landing that the U.S. economy is gliding toward as recession fears wane and inflation is tamed?Trump himself is a big part of the problem. Immediately after the Dow shot past 50,000 points, the president proclaimed that the index would hit 100,000 by the end of his second term. Trump continually turns the “under-promise and over-deliver” maxim for managing expectations on its head.Trump’s penchant for turning tariffs on and off again like a 2-year-old who’s discovered a light switch also injects uncertainty into a business culture that craves stability.But, as with nearly every other facet of American life these days, the partisan divide also is at work on opinions about the economy.A Gallup poll released Feb. 9 found that 82% of Republicans but only 24% of Democrats think that the economy will grow either a lot or a little in the next six months. The partisan gap was also wide on expectations for stocks, interest rates, unemployment and inflation.Author Kyla Scanlon invented a term – “vibecession” – in 2022 to describe the disconnect between how people feel about the economy and the actual data. It’s a cute term, but one that’s not all that helpful. Our emotions are often misleading, and if there’s one area where the data matters much more than how I feel, it’s in the size of my bank accounts and my stock portfolio.Add in the intense hatred that Trump sparks among progressives, and “vibes” can be badly misleading on what should be a partisan-neutral assessment of the economy.Let’s dip into history for context. Bill Clinton was, in many respects, a bad president and a worse person. It would be dishonest, however, not to acknowledge the overall strength of the U.S. economy during his presidency.Even so, the unemployment rate was higher under Clinton than under Trump at this point in their second terms, and the cumulative rate of inflation was higher under Clinton than under Trump for the first five years each man was in the White House (12.9% versus 10.4%).So, hold on to all the bad vibes you want about Trump. He may well deserve them. But let’s not mislead people into thinking the economy is awful when it’s actually quite strong.Tim Swarens is a former deputy opinion editor of USA TODAY and opinion editor of The Indianapolis Star.Share this… Facebook Pinterest Twitter Linkedin Whatsapp Post navigationCouncilmember’s Push to Improve L.A. Filming Passes Latest Hurdle Local business owner hopes new shop is worth the wait | News, Sports, Jobs
