Artificial intelligence (AI) has arguably been the biggest financial story in the world since the public release of ChatGPT in late 2022, but in early 2026, experts from the banking giant Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) believe its impact has been vastly overstated.
Specifically, multiple analysts and economists with the company opined in February that the impact of AI on the U.S. economy in 2025 has been ‘basically zero,’ across a series of statements given to outlets like The Washington Post and the Atlantic Council.
Why AI had ‘zero impact’ on the U.S. GDP in 2025
The core of Goldman’s argument, per the bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius, is that the majority of equipment required for artificial intelligence has to be imported into the United States.
Under the circumstances, the cost of imports offsets the large reported investments by big tech in the American economy, ensuring the final impact is negligible. Indeed, Hatzius believes the U.S. AI boom has had a greater impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) of South Korea and Taiwan.
Taiwan might be a particularly large beneficiary, considering it is the base for a large percentage of all semiconductor foundries, including the world’s biggest chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM).
U.S. remains confident in AI boom
Elsewhere, it is noteworthy that Goldman Sachs’ take on the impact of AI is far from universal.
Along with the claims of the various Silicon Valley companies directly involved with the boom, multiple key institutions believe the effects of the technology cannot be overstated.
For example, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated in 2025 that AI contributed as much as 39% to GDP growth in the third quarter of the year.
President Donald Trump’s administration appears to also believe in the boom, considering its aid to the technology sector’s drive to prevent state-level regulation on the development and proliferation of artificial intelligence.
Elsewhere, even if Goldman Sachs’ assessment that AI’s impact on the U.S. economy in 2025 has been close to zero, the situation could dramatically shift in 2026.
Why AI could turbocharge U.S. GDP in 2026
Along with the approximately $700 billion expected to be spent on critical infrastructure such as data centers, large beneficiaries elsewhere in the supply chain have been boosting their on-shore production capacity.
For example, despite calling the Federal Government’s request to move 40% of its production to the U.S. ‘impossible,’ the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has been significantly expanding its facilities in North America.
Under the circumstances and given that TSMC is a critical supplier for both Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) – and that the two are themselves key suppliers of the AI boom – at least a part of the alleged 2025 impact on Taiwanese GDP could turn into 2026 growth for the U.S.
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