Live: Share market tumbles on ‘traditional Friday 13 meltdown’

The big four banks have today increased savings rates following last Tuesday’s RBA decision, “but not all rates have received the full 0.25 percentage point increase,” interest rate comparison website Canstar notes.

“Westpac now offers the highest ongoing savings rate, not just out of the majors, but the whole market, with a maximum rate of 5.25%, but only for those aged 18-34 who meet the bank’s conditions each month,” Canstar noted.

“Looking at the big banks’ bonus saver accounts, where customers have to meet conditions to qualify for the maximum rate, all four hiked the bonus rate on these accounts, but largely left the base rate untouched.

“This means anyone who doesn’t meet the monthly conditions will miss out on getting the full benefit of the RBA rise, which Canstar’s research shows is around 41% of people with a bonus saver account.”

“The Australian dollar likely has more upside,” AMP’s chief economist Shane Oliver said in his weekly note.

He pointed to the key drivers of the local currency:

• a downtrend in the overvalued US dollar as Trump’s policies are seen as threatening “US exceptionalism”, 
• strong commodity prices 
• and market expectations for a widening in the interest rate differential. 

“Our assessment remains that these three forces will remain in play for a while yet so there is likely to be more upside for the $A at least to around $US0.73, which is our rough estimate of fair value,” Shane Oliver said.

The ABC Business team has been given an early copy of AMP’s weekly investor note from chief economist, Shane Oliver.

Here’s Oliver update on commodities markets:

Gold and silver remained under some pressure, but gold looks to have bottomed and is likely to be supported by ongoing erratic US policy making and high levels of geopolitical risk.

Bitcoin also fell further and may see a retest of its low from early this month.

Oil and copper prices fell but iron ore prices were little changed.

With less than two hours before the closing bell, there appears to be an absence of buyers coming into the share market.

The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen 120.20 points or 1.33% to 8,923.30 after setting a new 50-day high.

The bottom performing stocks in this index are Austal Limited, slumping 22% and Cochlear Limited, down 17%.

Generally speaking, traders can choose to sell ahead of the weekend given there’s a session on Wall Street before the Australian market opens on Monday.

Newly elected Liberal leader Angus Taylor and his deputy Jane Hume have been talking to reporters for the first time since Mr Taylor ousted Sussan Ley in a partyroom vote earlier on Friday.

Ms Hume, who replaces Ted O’Brien as deputy, says the Coalition intended to highlight the Labor government’s mishandling of the economy.

The 54-year-old spoke about the period when she left university in the early 1990s and “walked straight into a recession”.

She was referring to the economic downturn that Australia suffered which was famously described by then-Labor treasurer Paul Keating as “the recession we had to have”.

The recession was caused by steep interest rates and high 1980s debt, with the intension of curbing inflation.

It resulted in high unemployment, which peaked at 11.2% in 1992.

“Every family will know a young person who has lost hope, who feels that no matter how hard they work, they simply can’t get ahead. Labor has failed Australians,” Ms Hume said.

I know, right?

Weird.

I’ll own that one, John!

Thanks for pointing it out.

DT

Love having you with us here in the blog community, Jason!

DT

Australian-based global shipping company, Austal, is among the market horror stories today.

The company, according to its website, specialises in the design, construction and support of defence and commercial vessels.

Today it’s being savaged by the market for double-counting.

On Thursday, February 12, it updated the ASX, saying:

Austal Limited advises that in preparation of its half-year accounts, the company identified that some incentives related to its T-ATS program were recognised by its US subsidiary, Austal USA, in line with percentage of completion.

These incentives had already been recognised in Austal USA’s forecast at full value for the remaining part of the program. The US$17.1m (approx.) overstatement had been included in the Company’s FY2026 EBIT guidance.

As a result, Austal is updating its EBIT guidance for FY2026 to approximately A$110m.

Shareholder value, logically, therefore needed to be discounted from the company.

Its share price at 2pm AEDT was down 23% to $4.84.

The broader market is enduring some heavy selling this afternoon.

At 1:30pm AEDT, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is down 1.4% to 8,920.

The traditional defensive utilities sector is the best performer, up 2.5%, while the banks, consumer discretionary stocks and miners are the hardest hit.

“[We’re seeing the] traditional Friday 13 meltdown,” Marcus Today senior portfolio manager Henry Jennings said.

“Results have been pretty underwhelming and a risk-off sell-off in the US and commodities [markets] ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year doesn’t help.”

Nick Scali is among a slew of companies to publish financial results today.

The furniture retailer’s profit for the half year attributable to the owners rose 36.4% to $40.9 million.

Final dividend for the year ended 30 June 2025 (paid on October 28) of 33$ (fully franked).

CEO Anthony Scali told the ASX the result reflected, “… 13% growth in sales revenue in ANZ and the improvement in gross margin in both the UK and ANZ.”

Again, this is consistent with an increase in household spending across the economy late last year.

The market’s disappointed though, sending the share price down 17% to $19.64 at 1:20pm AEDT.

• ASX 200: -1.31% to 8926.7
• Australian dollar: Flat at 70.88 US cents
• Wall Street: S&P 500: -1.5% Nasdaq: -2.1%
• Europe: EuroStoxx: -0.5% DAX: flat
• Spot gold: +1.2% to $US4,977/ounce
• Brent crude: +0.1% to $US67.56/barrel
• Bitcoin: +0.5% to $US66,521

Price current around 1.12pm AEDT

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

Friday the 13th hasn’t been a happy day for Asian equities so far.

Like the ASX 200, Asian shares have fallen amid worries over the negative impact of AI.

We’ve seen a drop in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index for the first time in six sessions.

Markets in Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore were all down.

South Korea provided a bright spot, with the KOSPI Composite Index up 0.35% in morning trade.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen was set for its best week in almost 15 months amid reports that Tokyo and the Washington were moving closer to finalising detials of their trade deal — and in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election win on Sunday.

It was last steady at 152.86 per US dollar, but was set to gain nearly 3% for the week, which would mark its largest advance since November 2024.

“The election outcome might be seen as marking an end to the political instability that has persisted since July last year, suggesting that short-yen positions have been unwound,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at SMBC.

“There may still be room for further yen appreciation.”

Against the euro, the yen was similarly poised for a 2.3% weekly jump, its strongest performance in a year.

It was also up roughly 2.8% against the British pound for the week, its largest rise since July 2024.

 With reporting by Reuters

Here are some key takeaways from today’s Westpac first quarter 2026 earnings update:

Unaudited statutory net profit up 5% on the second half (2025).

CET1 capital ratio of 12.3%, above target ratio of 11.25% “in normal operating conditions”.

Core NIM down 3 basis points or 0.03% to 1.79%.

Westpac told the ASX, “The resilience of both households and businesses is reflected in lower levels of customer stress.”

Indeed, credit impairment provisions came in at $5.0 billion as at 31 December 2025 — $2.1 billion “above expected losses of the base case economic scenario”.

This is consistent with the economic commentary from the Reserve Bank.

It’s clear households and businesses have been driving demand in the economy.

Westpac’s earnings though have been squeezed by increased competition for deposits, and mortgage customers, among the banks.

Multiple media outlets are reporting that Kathy Ruemmler will leave investment bank Goldman Sachs at the end of June.

Focusing now on Cochlear:

• Sales revenue declined by 2% in constant currency terms.
• Gross margin decreased to 73%.
• Stock price fell by 15.91% following the earnings report.
• Launched the Nexa cochlear implant system.

“Underlying profit is expected to be at the lower end of the $435-460 million guidance range provided in August 2025.”

On its full year 2026 outlook, Cochlear told the ASX, “There remains a significant, unmet and addressable clinical need for cochlear and acoustic implants that is expected to continue to underpin the long-term sustainable growth of the business.”

At 12:40pm AEDT, the stock price was down 17% to $203.28

If there was a lunch, it was probably a source about to give me an exclusive.

Dang.

But the blog must be served!

Canstar has dropped an ominous note to say today, Friday, 13 February 2026, marks the day the majority of variable borrowers across the country have had their mortgage rate increased.

“This morning as big four banks CBA, NAB and ANZ raised rates by 0.25% on the back of last Tuesday’s cash rate hike,” the interest rate comparison website said.

Westpac variable mortgage customers will see their rates rise on Tuesday (17 February).

At the start of this week, the coalition of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi swept to a historic election win.

The conservative Ms Takaichi, who said she was inspired by Britain’s “Iron Lady”, Margaret Thatcher, is a staunch ally of US President Donald Trump.

Now, her trade minister Ryosei Akazawa has agreed to accelerate talks with the US on the first batch of deals under Japan’s $US550 billion ($776 billion) investment package

“As there remain areas where Japan and the United States need further coordination, we agreed to work closely together to develop projects,” Mr Akazawa told reporters in Washington.

Japan had been under pressure to move faster on implementing the investment package agreed as part of Tokyo’s deal with Washington to reduce tariffs on Japanese exports.

Last July, Japan and the US announced a trade agreement covering energy, AI, and chips—in exchange for lower tariffs of 15% on Japanese cars and other goods.

The deal aimed to reduce the US trade deficit and boosts US agricultural, defence, and manufacturing access to Japan.

Mr Akazawa is under pressure to make progress with Ms Takaichi’s upcoming US visit in mind,

But admits that obstacles remain in reaching an agreement with his American counterparts.

“Because of that, the talks have become extremely tough. I cannot say at this point when or what kind of projects will be finalised,” he said.

Critics of the Trump administration say its trade deals with nations like Japan are often inflated in value — more concepts of a plan with a grand announcement rather than a concrete agreement — that countries can easily walk back in the future if they choose to.

With reporting by Reuters