Market firm claps back at ‘doomer’ report about US economy shake-up: ‘[It’s] not a prediction’

Analysts don’t agree on whether a computer is coming for your job. 

And the latest opposing opinions highlight what most people likely feel when watching a Tesla Optimus robot folding laundry or artificial intelligence programs delivering business plans: uncertainty. 

A Citrini Research hypothetical memo from the year 2028, while not intended to be “AI doomer” content, was bleak. 

“The initial wave of layoffs due to human obsolescence began in early 2026,” according to the fictional piece. 

The scenario includes a boom-or-bust stock market, 10% unemployment — it’s currently 4.3% — and company leaders who are reluctant to pass up savings that are earned by giving computers a greater share of the workload. 

Conversely, Citadel Securities’ Frank Flight thinks such fears are inflated, especially in the near term, for several key reasons. They are outlined in multiple reports. 

AI requires massive amounts of energy-hungry computing, which is forecast to surge in the coming years. The hubs are already contributing to electricity prices that are rising faster than inflation, NPR reported. Since the hardware can’t “self-scale” like the software, the need to build expensive infrastructure “could represent real physical bottlenecks to recursive AI expansion at scale,” Flight wrote. 

Also, technology advances typically create a bigger pie, rather than “rebalancing labor.” Flight cited AI-related hiring plans from IBM, a possible data-center construction job revival, and other benefits as evidence. 

Flight also wrote that government intervention — regulation and fiscal stimulus — would likely be enacted to mitigate the worst impacts. 

Data Center Map reported that there are 4,030 facilities across the country, with many more being planned, though some communities are protesting their arrival. The University of Michigan detailed drawbacks, including extreme water use to cool the tech and rampant energy demand that drives up costs. 

And while data companies have invested in their own power plants, including cleaner renewables in some cases, it’s not enough to meet the substantial need. 

“This gap between promise and reality underscores the fundamental contradiction in labeling data centers as ‘environmentally friendly,'” per the U-M report. 

By keeping tabs on how data center operations impact neighborhoods, community members can better play the part of watchdogs, ensuring that tech businesses meet their environmental stewardship promises. 

As for 2028 and beyond, Citrini founder James van Geelen said his firm’s memo from the future was “not a prediction” but rather a warning that existing jobs could be lost faster than new ones are made, according to Bloomberg. 

Flight — in a report that mentions immigration and tariff policies as factors — considers the worry to be overblown. 

“We think that the current narrative may have swung too quickly toward AI disintermediation,” he wrote.

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