Mexico Meat Demand Outpaces Supply, Lifting Prices

Mexico’s meat consumption reached a record high in 2025, widening the gap between domestic production and demand, and increasing reliance on imports as industry leaders warn of sustained price pressures driven by security, sanitary and trade factors.

In 2025, meat consumption in Mexico rose 4.1% to 84.7 kg per capita, equivalent to 11.2Mt, the highest level on record. By protein, per capita pork consumption is growing at an annual rate of 6.7%, beef at 2.7%, and chicken at 2.2%. Domestic production, by contrast, is expanding at an annual rate of 2.6%, making imports necessary to balance the market. Out of every 100t of meat available in Mexico, 88t of turkey come from abroad; for pork the figure is 51 t; for chicken, 20 t; and for beef, 14t.

Francisco Jaraleño, President, Mexican Meat Council (ComeCarne), who was recently reelected for the 2026-2027 term, called for closer coordination between industry and authorities to guarantee supply during 2026. He also pointed to structural constraints in feed supply. Mexico imports about 74.2% of the yellow corn and sorghum used by the livestock chain. He said commercial integration is part of the market’s balance and that an open and orderly scheme contributes to supply and price stability.

“The question we must answer is very concrete: how are we going to feed Mexicans with fair prices, sustainable production and a competitive industry?” he said during the 2026 Annual Convention of the Meat Industry.

Policy changes have added complexity. The removal of pork and beef from the zero-tariff import scheme under the Package Against Inflation and High Prices (PACIC) led to adjustments in production planning and supply chain balance. A new tariff-rate quota of 70,000t for beef is being allocated through a bidding process, but industry executives say the mechanism has been complex and that physical products will not arrive until midyear, creating a temporary supply gap.

ComeCarne also referenced ongoing dumping investigations into US pork products, including ham and shoulder cuts. “The focus is not to confront. Our focus is to build,” Jaraleño said, reiterating the council’s willingness to collaborate with authorities as a technical and institutional partner.

Rising demand and policy shifts coincide with mounting cost pressures, particularly in beef. In January 2026, beef prices increased 16.5% year-over-year, compared with a 3.6% rise in pork prices and a 1.4% decline in chicken prices.

Industry executives attribute the beef surge to multiple factors, including the presence of the screwworm, limited cattle availability for slaughter in the United States and domestic security challenges. Although calves in Mexico that could not be exported to the United States remain in feedlots, they may take up to 18 months to reach slaughter weight.

Security costs have become a significant burden. Macarena Hernández, Director General, ComeCarne, said highway robberies rose about 10%, affecting raw materials as well as processed meat products. Beyond direct merchandise losses, insecurity has increased insurance premiums and operating expenses. Ernesto Salazar, Economic and Trade Studies Manager, ComeCarne, cited estimates from the National Agricultural Council (CNA) that between 10% and 20% of production costs are linked to extortion.

External factors are also at play. Gerardo Rodríguez, Regional Director, US Meat Export Federation, said US beef prices have risen 20% due to a reduction in that country’s cattle herd, a trend expected to persist at least through late 2027.

Despite higher prices, Hernández said she does not expect a contraction in meat consumption in Mexico, reflecting the structural strength of demand. The industry has committed to investing MX$17.5 billion (US$1.01 billion) annually, totaling more than MX$105 billion over the current administration, in new plants, facility upgrades and technology adoption.