Mexico’s craft beer industry is projecting double-digit production growth ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026, anticipating significant consumption spikes in major host cities. The expected surge highlights structural constraints, including IEPS taxation, input cost pressures, aluminum tariffs and heavy reliance on imported hops, which affect small and medium-sized brewers disproportionately. With craft beer representing a marginal share of Mexico’s total beer market, the event presents both a short-term demand catalyst and a test of the sector’s competitiveness within Mexico’s regulatory and supply chain environment.
Mexico’s craft beer sector expects to increase production by 12% annually ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by projected consumption spikes of up to 300% in key host cities and a global market forecast to reach US$4.8 billion by 2034, despite ongoing supply chain and tax challenges.
Daniel Cortés, CEO, Cervecería Nomada, highlighted that Mexico’s craft beer industry has been expanding at an annual rate of 10% to 12%. He added that 2026 is expected to bring a surge in consumption, fueled by the FIFA World Cup. According to projections by consulting firm IMARC Group, the market value of this segment reached US$2.3 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.11% between 2026 and 2034, reaching a valuation of US$4.8 billion by the end of that period.
Matías Vera-Cruz, Chief Economist, Unión Cervecera Independiente (La Union), pointed out that during the FIFA World Cup in Mexico, craft beer sales are expected to spike by up to 300% in restaurants, tasting rooms and taprooms located mainly in Mexico City and Guadalajara. In the off-premise channel, which includes convenience stores and supermarkets, revenues could increase between 50% and 80%. To a lesser extent, delivery sales may rise by up to 40%, largely due to the limited logistics capacity of small and medium-sized local breweries.
These projections represent a major opportunity following a challenging 2025, when the industry faced macroeconomic uncertainty, lower consumer confidence and venue closures in Mexico City. Nevertheless, the sector continues to face obstacles that hinder growth. Hops, one of the main ingredients in beer production alongside malt, is a raw material that Mexico imports at a rate exceeding 90%. In this regard, Vera-Cruz noted that producers must secure contracts in advance with suppliers from Germany and the United States to guarantee supply ahead of the World Cup.
The economist also warned that industrial beer producers could take up bottling capacity in the country ahead of the tournament, as occurred during the pandemic when bottlers focused on producing clear glass bottles, resulting in reduced production of amber bottles, which are primarily used by craft brewers. He added that tariffs have also affected input prices, particularly aluminum.
Moreover, Cortés explained that among the main barriers to entry are the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) and market pricing, as a craft beer can be between 45% and 70% more expensive than an industrial beer. He recalled that for the past 10 years, the industry has proposed a tiered IEPS scheme based on annual production volume, under which the tax percentage would increase as production grows. Currently, IEPS is an ad valorem tax calculated on the product’s base price and, when combined with VAT, the total production cost can rise by up to 46%.
“The industry’s view is that some type of incentive should be created to benefit small producers and make the tax fairer. From the outset, economies of scale already put us at a disadvantage,” Cortés said. He added that the industry must also professionalize, diversify offerings for consumers and expand consumption centers.
Currently, craft beer has limited access to stadiums, massive concerts and collaborative venues, according to the CEO of Cervecería Nomada. The sector’s aspiration is to establish responsible consumption spaces and integrate craft beer into local culture, as seen in countries such as Germany and Belgium, where responsible consumption forms part of tradition. “There is still significant potential to develop, and much work to be done in an industry that, in some aspects, moves against the current,” he said.
Mexico’s craft beer industry represents less than 1% of the total beer market, reflecting a substantial opportunity gap. “We are still at a stage where we must focus on reaching that 98% or 99% of the market and concentrate on building culture, ensuring consumers better understand the independent beer segment and strengthening an industry that requires support from other branches or satellite industries that revolve around production,” Cortés explained.
In the United States, the craft beer retail market was valued at over US$26.8 billion, representing 13.1% of the country’s total beer market in terms of volume. This contrasts with Mexico, where market share stands at just 5.3%, according to the Systematized Information on Channels and Markets (ISCAM) platform.
According to La Unión, Mexico’s guild comprises more than 4,000 small breweries. Baja California, considered the Latin American capital of craft beer, is home to more than 190 brewing projects. Of this total, the organization represents 75% of national production and includes more than 95 brands, of which 80% are small and nano businesses, while the remaining 20% are larger breweries.
Vera-Cruz highlighted that despite risks related to input shortages or logistical challenges, Mexican craft breweries have idle installed capacity that allows them to meet demand spikes during the World Cup. He noted that larger companies can scale production between 30% and 40%, medium-sized breweries up to 30% and smaller ones, though with greater difficulty, up to 15%.