Milk Production, Cereal Growth and Rising Import Pressures

The milk sector is coordinating a national action plan to strengthen commercialization, expand production capacity and reduce reliance on imported powdered milk. Meanwhile, Mexico’s cereal market reached US$1.65 billion in 2025, with 6.4% growth. 

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Dairy Strategy Targets Structural Deficit Amid Import Dependence

Mexico’s federal government, and leading dairy processors including Alpura, Danone, Lala, Lactalis, Nestlé, Santa Clara and Sigma have launched a joint strategy to close the country’s structural milk deficit, which stands at roughly 4 billion L annually, driving heavy reliance on US powdered milk imports. With domestic production at about 12 billion L versus consumption near 16 billion L, industry leaders warn output must grow 8–10% annually, supported by MX$1 billion in genetic improvement, infrastructure upgrades and productivity measures. 

Mexican Cereal Market Reached US$1.65 Billion in 2025

Mexico’s ready-to-eat cereal market is projected to reach US$1.6 billion in 2025, expanding at a 6.4% annual rate through 2035, driven more by changing consumer habits and demand for nutritional products than by population growth. Industry players are shifting strategies toward portability, convenience and value-added promotions, while increasing investment in digital marketing and brand positioning to capture both at-home and out-of-home consumption. At the same time, companies face technical R&D challenges in reducing sugar, fat and sodium without compromising taste or texture, as increasingly informed consumers demand healthier, traceable products and a stronger brand experience.

Record Corn Imports Deepen Pressure on Grain Producers

Mexico’s corn imports rose 25% year-on-year in January 2026 to a record 1.9Mt, driven by higher US shipments and favorable price differentials, intensifying pressure on domestic prices and leaving large unsold inventories in regions such as Bajío, Chihuahua and Sinaloa. Analysts warn that the surge reflects structural challenges, including weaker commercialization support, the elimination of contract farming programs and development financing, and global overproduction that makes imported grain more attractive for buyers. 

Mexico Meat Demand Outpaces Supply, Lifting Prices

Mexico’s meat consumption reached a record 84.7 kg per capita in 2025, totaling 11.2Mt, outpacing domestic production growth and increasing reliance on imports, particularly for turkey and pork. Industry leaders warn that rising demand, feed grain dependence on imports and recent tariff and quota adjustments are complicating supply planning, while beef prices surged 16.5% year-on-year amid sanitary, security and US herd constraints. Despite cost pressures and logistical challenges, the sector expects demand to remain strong and has committed significant investment in processing capacity and technology to sustain long-term competitiveness.

Mexico, Canada Deepen Agri-Food Ties Amid US Decline

Mexico and Canada are advancing efforts to expand agri-food trade, streamline Mexican meat exports and establish new sanitary protocols, reporting near full compliance with bilateral agreements reached in October 2025 ahead of the USMCA review. With bilateral trade reaching US$56 billion in 2024, both governments aim to boost two-way flows of meat, produce and processed foods while launching digital systems to facilitate trade and attract Canadian investment in Mexico. The strategy also seeks to offset declining beef exports to the United States, where intensified competition from Australia, Brazil and other suppliers has reduced the market share of both North American partners despite tariff-free access.