During his State of the Union address, President Donald Trump highlighted US-Mexico cooperation that led to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, “El Mencho,” leader of the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación. The operation, carried out by Mexican Special Forces with US intelligence support, triggered violence across 20 Mexican states and caused estimated economic losses of US$87 million to US$116 million. Analysts warn that, while the strike is a major blow to the CJNG, removing its leader alone is unlikely to dismantle the cartel’s networks, leaving the country at risk of continued violence, territorial disputes, and supply chain disruptions.
President Donald Trump highlighted US-Mexico cooperation that led to the killing of Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) leader Nemesio “El Mencho,” an operation that sparked violence across 20 Mexican states and caused up to US$116 million in losses. Analysts warn that leadership removal alone is unlikely to dismantle the cartel.
Donald Trump’s State of the Union
During his State of the Union address, President Donald Trump highlighted US-Mexico cooperation that led to the killing of El Mencho, leader of the CJNG. “We also took down one of the most sinister drug lords of all. You saw that yesterday,” Trump said.
He framed the operation as part of a broader security and economic agenda, saying, “We are restoring the security and dominance of the United States in the Western Hemisphere, acting to protect our national interests and defend our country from violence, drugs, terrorism and foreign interference,” he said.
US-Mexico Operations
Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, said US involvement was limited to intelligence support. “The military operation was planned and executed by Mexican Special Forces,” noting the action was carried out within the framework of bilateral cooperation.
The operation followed a 12-month US-Mexico coordinated campaign that began with financial and legal measures. In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. The US State Department classified the Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG, the Northeast Cartel, La Nueva Familia Michoacana, the Gulf Cartel and Carteles Unidos as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists, expanding US authority to pursue cartels beyond its borders.
Facundo Rosas, Public Security Expert, said the terrorist designation enabled a joint strategy. “The US government considered him a priority target, which is why the terrorist designation gave both governments the opportunity to implement a strategy in which each contributed its authorities, tools and intelligence capabilities to locate him. It took several months, but they ultimately succeeded,” Rosas said.
Before operations intensified in Mexico, US courts sentenced Rubén Oseguera, “El Menchito,” to life in prison for drug trafficking and illegal weapons charges. In May 2025, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned three Mexican nationals and two Mexico-based companies tied to CJNG networks involved in drug trafficking and fuel theft, blocking all US-held assets.
In June 2025, FinCEN named CIBanco, Intercam and Vector for allegedly facilitating financial operations tied to fentanyl trafficking and prohibited certain fund transfers involving the banks.
The US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) also reported a coordinated operation that led to 670 arrests in under a week, with seizures of 22 tons of cocaine, 92kg of fentanyl, 6.6 tons of methamphetamine and 33kg of heroin, alongside US$18.6 million in cash, US$29 million in assets and 244 firearms.
“The DEA is committed to dismantling the CJNG’s command, control, and distribution networks and continuing the pursuit of its co-founder and leader, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho. He remains one of the DEA’s most wanted fugitives, and a reward of up to US$15 million is being offered,” the agency said prior to his capture.
In Mexico, authorities arrested Óscar Antonio Álvarez González, identified as the cartel’s main financial operator. The final operation tracked a close associate of Oseguera’s partner to a cabin in Tapalpa, Jalisco, where Mexican federal forces, supported by US intelligence, launched the raid that resulted in his death.
Despite the blow, analysts caution the CJNG is unlikely to disappear. “The capture of the leader of the organization was an objective, but it does not guarantee the disappearance of the organization itself… With this, the Federal Government has managed to contain, at least, direct intervention, but what we are observing is indirect intervention, and that is being allowed,” Arturo Villarreal Palos, National Security Expert, Universidad de Guadalajara.
Business Impact
The killing triggered widespread violence across multiple Mexican states, leaving at least 58 people dead, 15 security personnel injured and 70 detained. Roadblocks, arson attacks and assaults disrupted commercial activity in 24 states.
Mexico’s business sector estimates losses between MX$1.5 billion (US$87 million) and MX$2 billion (US$116 million), according to Octavio de la Torre, President, Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services and Tourism.
The total amount could be lower than initially reported, as affiliated businesses are still compiling reports of theft and looting affecting both commercial establishments and highways following the day of violence in the country
“Among the impacted establishments were OXXO locations, gas stations and supermarkets, which reported gunfire incidents that led to temporary shutdowns,” de la Torre said. He added that family businesses, retailers and service providers faced transport interruptions, logistical disruptions and material damage but are gradually restoring operations.
Future Outlook
Experts warn that leadership decapitation alone will not dismantle the cartel’s networks. “We see that both the US and Mexican government are turning once again to the same strategy of decapitating a cartel while the entire structure continues to exist, along with all the human and material resources they had to operate,” Miguel Alfonso Meza, director, Defensorx said.
Vanda Felbab-Brown, expert on non-state armed groups, Brookings Institution said the aftermath could bring prolonged instability. “We will see violence in a different pattern, in a different form, and with different motivation,” she said, adding it could last “for months to come and potentially years to come as the criminal landscape is being redesigned.”
“El Mencho’s removal is like saying that a company is going to fail because you take out the CEO,” Chris Dalby, Senior Analyst, Dyami Security Intelligence. “Not at all. The flow of drugs is going to continue … and there are going to be plenty of pretenders to the throne. And Mexico is going to have to figure that out.”