2025 saw a wide array of big tech companies make sizable investments in AI.
Among them are Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Nvidia, and countless others. With so much money pouring into the premier tech sector, most investors are parroting the belief that investing in AI has a net positive impact on the US economy. Based on a post on X by Jason Furman, a Harvard economics professor, “investment in information processing equipment & software is 4% of GDP. But it was responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year. GDP excluding these categories grew at a 0.1% annual rate in H1.”
But according to Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, the heavy investment in AI from major tech companies hasn’t resulted in economic growth for the US at all.
According to Hatzius, no economic growth has come to the US as a result of major AI investments
During an interview with the Atlantic Council, Hatzius proclaimed that all that spending on AI investments has resulted in “basically zero” contributions to the US GDP growth in 2025. He went on state that, “we don’t actually view AI investment as strongly growth positive. I think there’s a lot of misreporting, actually, of the impact AI investment had on U.S. GDP growth in 2025, and it’s much smaller than is often perceived.”
Hatzius pointed to one of the leading reasons for the lack of economic growth in the US due to AI investments: the reliance on imported equipment used to power AI. “A lot of the AI investment that we’re seeing in the U.S. adds to Taiwanese GDP, and it adds to Korean GDP but not really that much to U.S. GDP,” he noted.
Goldman Sachs’ AI learnings aren’t all bad, however. In a 2023 report, Goldman Sachs Research forecasted AI beginning to have a measurable impact on the US GDP and labor productivity in 2027. One of the main key points from that report noted that “AI could increase US productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points annually assuming widespread adoption over a 10-year period.”
A separate 2025 report pointed to an increase in workers being displaced as more companies adopt AI, sadly. “Innovation related to artificial intelligence (AI) could displace 6-7% of the US workforce if AI is widely adopted,” the report pointed out. “But the impact is likely to be transitory as new job opportunities created by the technology ultimately put people to work in other capacities.”
Even with that half-troubling, half-hopeful outlook, that same report relieved some workers’ fears as it remained skeptical about AI leading to a massive increase in layoffs over the next decade. Goldman Sachs estimated that “generative AI will raise the level of labor productivity in the US and other developed markets by around 15% when fully adopted and incorporated into regular production.” The result of that is said to lead to a half-percent increase in the unemployment rate above its rate during the AI transition period.
Bottom line
Massive tech investments in AI have helped fuel market optimism, but recent comments from Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius suggest the technology has yet to make a measurable contribution to U.S. productivity or GDP. That reality stands in contrast to investor enthusiasm and highlights the gap between AI’s long-term potential and its near-term economic impact.
For businesses, the takeaway may be less about slowing AI investment and more about balancing it with investments in workers, training and systems that help employees use the technology effectively. In the near term, productivity gains are more likely to come from how people use AI than from the technology alone.
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