A new report has warned that the United States’ waning birth rate and slowing population growth could result in a major hit to its overall economic competitiveness.
According to the estimates from IMPLAN, an economic impact analysis platform, had population growth continued at its 2024 rate, billions of dollars in spending would “have flowed through American businesses, supporting jobs, wages, and value creation across the economy.”
However, newer data showing a further fertility slowdown in 2025 suggests the U.S. will now miss out on $103.9 billion going toward its gross domestic product (GDP).
Why It Matters
Declining birth rates can weigh heavily on an economy, shrinking the size of labor and consumer pools while increasing average age of the nation—resulting in rising expenditures on things such as health care and pensions and decreased tax revenue from the smaller working-age population.
And demographic collapses of this kind have been cited as a driving force in other nations’ economic troubles, prompting them to implement policies such as direct cash incentives and tax benefit programs to promote procreation.
What To Know
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), despite an increase in the total number of births, the fertility rate ticked down to an all-time low of 1.6 per-woman, dipping further below replacement levels.
And preliminary estimates for 2025 show a further slide, with the general fertility rate—total births per 1,000 birthing-age women—reaching 53.6 in the third quarter compared to 54.6 a year prior.
IMPLAN reports that slowing population growth had resulted in “roughly 1.4 million fewer people contributing to housing demand, retail spending, and service consumption” in 2025, and said that this amount of “missing” residents could lead to “ripple effects” spreading throughout the entire economy.
This “growth gap,” its researchers found, translates into around $86.2 billion in sacrificed household spending, which would have supported over 740,000 jobs and created $53.5 billion in labor income for American workers, while helping to generate $103.9 billion in GDP.
“Instead of manifesting as a gradual demographic trend, the slowdown appears as an immediate demand shock, which businesses experience through reduced transaction volumes rather than increased costs,” the report read.
And the impact is not evenly distributed, with housing, health care and the service industry feeling the worst effects. Additionally, a projected decline in international migration could also exacerbate the issues associated with demographic collapse in states such as California, New York and Texas—which “depend on newcomers to balance domestic out-migration.”
What People Are Saying
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, in a recent report on America’s potential “fertility crisis,” wrote: “A sub-replacement level of fertility can result in economic strain. If fertility rates continue their downward trend and lead to population decline, there will be fewer workers, spenders, and savers to fuel the economy.”
“At the same time, the share of the U.S. population over 65 is growing rapidly and increasingly tapping into social services, like Social Security and Medicare, with a declining population of younger, working adults unable to shoulder the costs,” it added.
What Happens Next
According to recent demographic outlook published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. fertility rate is expected to continue dropping below replacement level in 2026 and beyond, with plateauing immigration figures resulting in population growth slowing to zero by 2056.